Tag Archives: spaghetti models

An Eye on the Tropics: Ike – 09-SEP-2008 8:00 AM

Hurricane Ike has weakened to a Category 1 storm after crossing Cuba.  Ike will be emerging into the Gulf of Mexico once it crosses western Cuba.  Though the track is still uncertain, most models indicate that landfall will occur in Texas.  Click on the Computer Model Verification map below and see the progression of the spaghetti model for Ike.

As of 8 AM, Hurricane Ike was located near 22.4 north and 82.4 west, or 40 miles south of Havana, Cuba. Ike is traveling west-northwest at 13 mph with winds of 80 mph. Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a central pressure of 965 mb, or 28.50 inches.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Matanzas, La Habana, Ciudad Habana, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay.

[Hurricane Ike Details and Maps]


An Eye on the Tropics: Hanna and Ike – 06-SEP-2008 11:30 PM

Tropical Storm Hanna is moving rapidly up the east coast of the U.S.  The storm is located 135 miles southwest of Providence, Rhode Island.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 55 mph and the minimum centralized pressure is 992 mb.  Hanna is moving northeast at 30 mph.

Major Hurricane Ike is now a category 4 hurricane.  It is located near the Turks and Caicos with maximum sustained winds near 135 mph.  Ike’s minimum centralized pressure is 947 mb.  The storm is moving west-southwest at 15 mph. 

Computer models indicate that Ike could miss Florida altogether with only the Keys and southern most part of the state still within the cone of uncertainty.  The storm is now expected to cut across Cuba and then move into the Gulf of Mexico.  It is still too early to determine where Ike will eventually make landfall.


[Storm Details and Maps]

An Eye on the Tropics: Hanna, Ike and Josephine – 06-SEP-2008 12:30 AM

Tropical Storm Hanna is almost hurricane strength. Location: near latitude 32.4 North and Longitude 79.1 West or about 60 miles east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina and about 140 miles south-southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina. Maximum Sustained Winds are 70 mph. Minimum Centralized Pressure is 978 mb. Hanna is moving to the north around 20 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 260 miles, mainly to the north and east of the storm’s center.

Hurricane Ike is currently a category 3 storm. Ike was near 22.6 north and 65.6 west, or about 360 miles east -northeast of Grand Turk Island. Maximum sustained winds are 115 mph with higher gusts. The estimated central pressure is 958 mb, or 28.29 inches. The hurricane is moving west-southwest at 16 mph. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles.

Josephine has been downgraded to a tropical depression. Josephine was centered around 16.3 north, 35.8 west. This is 785 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 35 mph with a central pressure of 1006 mb, or 29.71 inches. Josephine will remain in a hostile environment for the next couple of days due to shear and also cooler waters in its path. Currently moving to the west-northwest at 7 mph, this motion should continue with some increase in forward speed.

[Storm Details and Maps]

An Eye on the Tropics: Hanna, Ike and Josephine – 04-SEP-2008 10:00 PM

Tropical Storm Hanna has made her break toward the US. Landfall is expected somewhere between South Carolina and north to Virginia but surrounding areas must keep an eye on this storm.

Major Hurricane Ike is still a category 4 storm and is heading directly for the US. Models seem to vary on what will happen as it approaches the US. Ike expects to remain a major hurricane and could make US landfall early next week.

Tropical Storm Josephine is poorly organized at this time and no real strengthening is expected.

[Storm Details and Maps]

An Eye on the Tropics: Hanna, Ike and Josephine – 03-SEP-2008 10:00 PM

Three named storms are churning in the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Hanna has been hanging around the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Hanna is finally giving an indication which way she will track. It does appear that the storm will stay east of South Florida and possibly make landfall in northern Florida, Georgia or South Carolina.

Hurricane Ike strengthened to a category 3. It’s way too early to determine what impact this storm will have on the US, if any.

Tropical Storm Josephine is an interesting one. AccuWeather predicts that the storm will increase to hurricane strength while other models don’t see much of a future for Josephine, predicting that the storm will weaken to a tropical depression.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist has declared a state of emergency because of Hanna.

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An Eye on the Tropics: Hanna, Ike and TD10 – 02-SEP-2008 10:00 AM

The peak time of Hurricane season 2008 has begun. We have 3 named storms and a fourth on the way. All storms are included in this post.

Hurricane Hanna (currently downgraded to a tropical storm) will be making her move within the next day or two and could impact parts of the southeastern U.S. Tropical Storm Ike is churning out in the Atlantic and all models indicate that the storm will be heading toward the Caribbean and U.S, though obviously the final destination is quite uncertain at this time. Tropical Depression 10 is expected to become Josephine later today. And Tropical Depression Gustav made landfall yesterday as a category 2 storm.

[Details and Maps]

An Eye on the Tropics: Hurricane Hanna – 1-SEP-2008 8:00 AM

A nearly stationary Tropical Storm Hanna continues to churn just north of the Bahamas. Computer models finally are determining the future track of the storm. Though Florida is within the cone of uncertainty, Georgia and South Carolina seems to be the most likely point of landfall.

Since this storm has had the models confused for days, we’ll just have to keep an eye on this storm to see if there are any changes the middle of the week.

[Update:  Tropical Storm Hanna has strengthened into Hurricane Hanna with winds at 75 mpg at the 2:00 pm advisory.]

[Tropical Storm Hanna Details and Maps]