Tag Archives: spaghetti models

Eye on the Tropics –Danielle, Earl and more – Aug 26, 2010

We’ve been waiting for this – The 2010 Tropical season is heating up.  As the transition from the El Niño to La Niña winds down we expected the Atlantic hurricane season to pick up.  This was what all of the hurricane experts were predicting.

Currently there is 1 hurricane (Danielle), 1 Tropical Storm (Earl) and 2 others that are being closely watched.

Hurricane Danielle

As of:  11amLocation:  24.4° N, 55.9° W or approximately 770 miles Southeast of BermudaMaximum sustained winds: 105 mph or Category 2.  Gusting up to 120 mphMovement: NW 15 mphPressure:  28.64 inches or 970 mb

Hurricane Danielle is expected to turn more to the north by the weekend bringing the storm very close to Bermuda on Sunday.  Though the eye is expected to remain east of Bermuda, the island will be heavily impacted by this strong hurricane.  Danielle is expected to reach Category 3 intensity before the weekend. 

Hurricane Danielle forecast model
Hurricane Danielle Spaghetti model

Tropical Storm Earl

As of:  11amLocation:  14.9° N, 37.1° W or approximately or approximately 1735 miles east of the Northern Leeward IslandsMaximum sustained winds: 45 mph.  Gusting up to 55 mphMovement: W 17 mphPressure:  29.65 inches or 1004 mb

As with Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl is not forecast to be a threat to the U.S.  The same weakness that Hurricane Danielle found that has her turning toward Bermuda is expected to remain long enough for Earl to follow the similar path. 

Tropical Storm Earl forecast model
Tropical Storm Earl Spaghetti model

Also watching

There is a strong looking system just west of the coast of Africa that is expected to strengthen to storm status and a system brewing in the Gulf of Mexico.  One of these is expected to become Tropical Storm Fiona over the next few days.

New storm coming off coast of Africa – Tropical Storm Earl to the left
A mess in the Gulf of Mexico – Low pressure system could become tropical storm

Also, there are a series of storms currently crossing Africa that can be seen in the last picture from NOAA. (H/T to Joe Bastardi)

‘Parade’ of storms across Africa & Atlantic Ocean

An Eye on Tropical Storm Danny

Tropical Storm Danny is still poorly organized though it is expected to strengthen into a hurricane.

As of 5am EDT on Thursday, Danny is located near 27.4 north, 72.1 west or about 575 miles south-southeast of Hatteras, North Carolina.  Maximum sustained wins are near 60 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.  It is moving northwest at 10 mph. Tropical Storm Danny’s central pressure is 1006 millibars or 29.71 inches.

Satellite images indicate that most of the storms deep convection is on the eastern side of the storm.  The center of Danny has re-formed a little farther to the north.

As Danny moves father away from the weak upper-level low that had been creating shear, thus preventing Danny from becoming better organized, the storm should now gradually strengthen over the next 24-48 hours.

[More on Tropical Storm Danny – maps & computer models]

TS Claudette makes landfall; Bill becomes hurricane [August 17]

Eye on the Tropics – Monday, August 17, 2009

tropics monday 1

Tropical Storm Claudette

Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall early Monday morning near Fort Walton Beach, Florida.  It was located near 30.9 north and 87.0 west or about 40 miles northwest of Fort Walton Beach.

Claudette has sustained winds of 40 mph and is heading northwest at 12 mph.  Estimated central pressure is 1006 millibars or 29.71 inches.

[More on Ana, Bill and Claudette]

Hurricane Season Gets Started – Ana, Bill and TD4

The 2009 Hurricane season was very quiet until late in the week as 3 systems formed – 2 in the Atlantic and 1 in the Gulf of Mexico.  The first storm of the hurricane season typically forms around the middle of August so there really are no surprises this year.   Remember, in 1992, Hurricane Andrew formed on August 16th

All Storms 3

[More on Ana, Bill and TD4]

An Eye on the Tropics: Hurricane Ike – 12-SEP-2008 8:00 AM

Hurricane Ike is bearing down on the Texas coast as a large category 2 storm.  Ike could still increase to category 3 strength today.

[Hurricane Ike Details and Maps]

An Eye on the Tropics: Hurricane Ike – 11-SEP-2008 8:00 AM

Keeping an eye on Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike is in the Gulf of Mexico heading toward Texas. The storm is expected to make landfall early Saturday as a very strong hurricane, possibly as strong as a Category 4.

[Hurricane Ike Details and Maps]

An Eye on the Tropics: Hurricane Ike – 10-SEP-2008 9:00 AM

Hurricane Ike has moved into the Gulf of Mexico and has begun strengthening. Computer models indicate that the likely landfall target will be Texas.

Hurricane Ike by the numbers:


Near 23.9 north, 85.3 west.

About 125 miles north of the western tip of Cuba, or 434 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.


Northwest at 8 mph

Maximum sustained winds:

85 mph

Minimum Centralized Pressure:

959 mb, or 28.32 inches

[Hurricane Ike Details and Maps]