Tag Archives: hurricane season

Eye on the Tropics –Danielle, Earl and more – Aug 26, 2010

We’ve been waiting for this – The 2010 Tropical season is heating up.  As the transition from the El Niño to La Niña winds down we expected the Atlantic hurricane season to pick up.  This was what all of the hurricane experts were predicting.

Currently there is 1 hurricane (Danielle), 1 Tropical Storm (Earl) and 2 others that are being closely watched.

Hurricane Danielle

As of:  11amLocation:  24.4° N, 55.9° W or approximately 770 miles Southeast of BermudaMaximum sustained winds: 105 mph or Category 2.  Gusting up to 120 mphMovement: NW 15 mphPressure:  28.64 inches or 970 mb

Hurricane Danielle is expected to turn more to the north by the weekend bringing the storm very close to Bermuda on Sunday.  Though the eye is expected to remain east of Bermuda, the island will be heavily impacted by this strong hurricane.  Danielle is expected to reach Category 3 intensity before the weekend. 

Hurricane Danielle forecast model
Hurricane Danielle Spaghetti model

Tropical Storm Earl

As of:  11amLocation:  14.9° N, 37.1° W or approximately or approximately 1735 miles east of the Northern Leeward IslandsMaximum sustained winds: 45 mph.  Gusting up to 55 mphMovement: W 17 mphPressure:  29.65 inches or 1004 mb

As with Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl is not forecast to be a threat to the U.S.  The same weakness that Hurricane Danielle found that has her turning toward Bermuda is expected to remain long enough for Earl to follow the similar path. 

Tropical Storm Earl forecast model
Tropical Storm Earl Spaghetti model

Also watching

There is a strong looking system just west of the coast of Africa that is expected to strengthen to storm status and a system brewing in the Gulf of Mexico.  One of these is expected to become Tropical Storm Fiona over the next few days.

New storm coming off coast of Africa – Tropical Storm Earl to the left
A mess in the Gulf of Mexico – Low pressure system could become tropical storm

Also, there are a series of storms currently crossing Africa that can be seen in the last picture from NOAA. (H/T to Joe Bastardi)

‘Parade’ of storms across Africa & Atlantic Ocean
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An Eye on the Tropics: T.S. / Hurricane Gustav – 29-AUG-2008 7:00 AM

Gustav will be trouble next week.

As the storm exits Jamaica tomorrow and enters the waters of the Caribbean, Gustav will strengthen into a category 1 hurricane. By Sunday, Gustav is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico as a category 3 and at some point could strengthen into a category 4 hurricane.

Though the future path is uncertain with the unpredictability of tropical cyclones, most computer models agree that Gustav will come ashore the middle of next week somewhere around Louisiana. This could be disastrous for an area that still hasn’t recovered from Hurricane Katrina 3 years ago.

[More Gustav Details and Maps]

An Eye on the Tropics – Spaghetti Models for 2 Low Pressure Systems

All eyes have been focused on Tropical Storm Fay as she moves westward through the Florida Panhandle. She is currently 35 miles northeast of Pensacola, Florida tracking toward Alabama and Mississippi. (For more on Tropical Storm Fay – click here.)

As of 11 PM EDT, August 23, 2008

Elsewhere in the tropics, a broad area of low pressure is located about one hundred miles east of the Windward Islands, producing showers and thunderstorms. Slow development is possible over the next couple of days as it moves westward.

A tropical wave located about 800 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands is producing some showers and thunderstorms. The visible satellite imagery from Saturday afternoon shows a little cyclonic turning with this feature, and slow development is possible over the next couple of days as it tracks westward.

Full details and Maps