Tag Archives: Bill McCollum

With Jeb out – Florida 2010 Senate race wide open

Last week former Florida Governor Jeb Bush announced that he would not seek the US Senate seat in 2010.  Mel Martinez announced December 2, 2008 that he would not seek a second term. 

The seat was Jeb’s for the taking.  He was a very popular Governor (even though I found him to be extremely stubborn and highly partisan).  I’m sure he has the larger prize in mind – the presidency.  In the meantime, I expect that he’ll take the precautions necessary for either a 2012 or 2016 run at the White House.  (The arduous work of repairing the Bush name)

As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, both parties look to field a large group of candidates. 

After Jeb, the most popular political figure in Florida is current Governor Charlie Crist.  He is quite popular and would coast to re-election in 2010.  If he opts to run for the Senate, he should coast to victory there as well.  Like Jeb, Crist has his eyes set on the White House.  He spent a couple of very painful months working to become John McCain’s running mate.  He changed some key positions pandering to the team that would eventually make that selection. 

Crist would be best served staying in the governor’s mansion if he has plans on a future White House run.  It should be interesting how it would play out if Jeb and Crist run in the same primary.  Though on a side note, both have problems:  Jeb carries the tarnished Bush name and Crist is a moderate Republican which would alienate the religious base more than McCain.

So who does this leave?

The leading Republican candidate is former Florida Speaker of the House Marco Rubio.  Very popular within his party he had been publicly at odds with Crist on issues when Crist worked across party lines.  Rubio had indicated that he could run for governor against Crist in 2010. 

Rubio would be a shoo-in for the Senate as he is one of the most well-known candidates (after Bush and Crist – unless 72-year old Bob Graham elects to return to the Senate.  It was, after all his seat that Martinez is now vacating.)

Rubio was first elected to the Florida House of Representatives in 2000 and recently served 2 years as Speaker of the House.  Though he hasn’t formerly announced, it is widely expected that he will.  He has set up a website and begun a fundraising campaign.

I’ve previously addressed the Republican candidates and will update my list shortly but wanted to address the Democrats here.  The winner will most likely lose to whoever the Republicans put up in the election.  I do find it hard to imagine Marco Rubio not coming out on top.

Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum is the other main Republican candidate.  He has previously had unsuccessful runs at the US Senate (most recently in 2004 primaries where he was smeared and lost to Martinez).  He may run for the Senate this time, though I see him running for re-election as AG followed by a run for governor. 


Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Robert Wexler have already announced that neither would pursue this seat.  It is a smart decision for each as both have bright futures in the House.  Wexler was an early supporter of President-elect Barack Obama and a strong vocal voice into the impeachment of Dick Cheney.  The latter didn’t fly with Congress but was popular with many liberals.

Wasserman Schultz is considered to be a future leader within the party in Washington. 

Potentially both would lose their House seats if they try and fail at the Senate.  Both are very strong candidates in the southern part of Florida but would not do well in the more conservative section of Florida to the north. 

My supporting argument as to why Wasserman Schultz and Wexler would remain in the House is best exemplified by Peter Deutsch.  My former Congressman served in the House from 1993 – 2005.  In 2004, he took a shot at the Senate seat vacated by Bob Graham.   He ended up losing the primary to Betty Castor and as a result finds himself out of politics.  Since he ran for the Senate, he couldn’t run for re-election in the House opening the door for Wasserman Schultz.

I see Deutsch considering another run, if he can gather the funds.  The problem for Deutsch is that he in enormously popular in South Florida and a virtual unknown elsewhere in the state – which explains why he only won the 3 South Florida counties and no other. 

Deutsch’s main primary opponent in the 2004 Senate race was Betty Castor.  She is well-known in the state but lost the 2004 Senate General Election to Martinez.  She chose not to run for governor in 2006.  As a result, I will be surprised to see her give the Senate another shot.  She would have an outside chance of beating Rubio in the General Election as she currently does have more name recognition.

With strong Republicans in the race, I would also doubt that Representatives Allen Boyd, Ron Klein and Kathy Castor (daughter of Betty Castor) would jump in.

Jim Davis began his political career in the Florida House serving from 1989-1996 and was House Majority Leader his last 2 years.  In 1997, he moved to the House of Representatives in the seat now occupied by Kathy Castor.  Davis did not run for re-election in 2006 opting to run for Governor where he lost the General Election to Charlie Crist.  I can definitely see Davis running for the open Senate seat and would have to be a favorite to win the Democratic primary.  I do believe that he would give Rubio his best run for the money.

A Davis / Betty Castor race would be very interesting. 

2 other strong Democratic names are current Florida CFO Alex Sink.  She will be up for re-election in 2010 so it will be interesting to see which direction she goes.  I could also see her running for governor in 2014.

Lastly, there is Daryl Jones.  I am a huge fan of Jones.  He failed in the Democratic primary in 2002 which saw Bill McBride (Alex Sink’s husband) defeat Jones and Janet Reno for the honor of getting thrashed by Jeb Bush in his re-election campaign.  Jones was chosen to be the running mate of Jim Davis against Charlie Crist in 2006. 

Though Jones is not currently in politics, his name isn’t that far removed.  I can see him jumping into the race, though I see him as a second tier candidate.

How do I rank the Democrats?

Top tier candidates:  Betty Castor, Jim Davis, Alex Sink

Second tier:  Peter Deutsch, Daryl Jones

I doubt they’ll run:  Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Robert Wexler, Allen Boyd, Ron Klein, Kathy Castor

Ranking the Republicans.

Top tier:  Marco Rubio, Bill McCollum

Second tier:  Connie Mack IV, Jeff Kottkamp, John Mica, Joe Scarborough

I doubt they’ll run (or announced they won’t):  Jeb Bush, Charlie Crist, Toni Jennings, Katherine Harris (please let her not run.  I don’t want to see her again)

If the election were held today:

I see Marco Rubio defeating Jim Davis 53 – 46. 

More to come . . .


The Battle for the Florida Senate Seat (2010 edition)

It has been 1 day since Florida Senator Mel Martinez announced that he will not seek re-election in 2010. He was going to be in for a 2-year dogfight in order to hold on to the seat. The Democratic Party was going to target this race as Martinez is not popular within the state.

He had announced that his desire was to spend more time with his family. That may be partly true since I suspect it would have been immensely time consuming to regain any lost popularity and essentially making up for barely visiting South Florida during the last 4 years.

So where do we go from here?

Names are being thrown around from both parties. The media has been speculating about the Democratic names for a while since it was assumed that Martinez would be the Republican nominee. The names being bandied about from the Republican side are quite tough to beat. Most of the names I mentioned yesterday are now being mentioned plus some that I overlooked / never expected.

Before reviewing the potential names, I need to mention the party balance of the state. Florida leans Republican but will swing to the Democrats with a viable candidate option. We all know about Florida in the presidential race of 2000. Florida did vote for Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008.

2000 also had an open Senatorial race. Republican Connie Mack III was retiring from the Senate and in the General Election Florida elected Democrat Bill Nelson over Republican Bill McCollum.

Approximately two-thirds of Florida’s House and Senate are comprised of Republicans and the ratio didn’t improve during the 2008 election which saw a strong move to the Democrats nationally.

The Republican names

Without question, the Republican field to replace Martinez is packed with huge names. These candidates are well-known statewide and a number are well-known nationally. Unless something changes between now and Election Day 2010, I can not fathom that the Democrats will win this seat.

The name that must top the list is former Governor Jeb Bush. He was the first Republican to be elected to 2 terms as governor in Florida. He was thought of to be destined for the presidency until George W’s popularity hurt the Bush name. As I mentioned yesterday, the Senate would be the perfect place for Jeb to restore the name and for time to pass so the Americans with short memories can forget the last 8 years.

I do suspect that Floridians have forgotten that Jeb, like W, governed for his party, without checks and balances. If Floridians voted for an amendment that Jeb didn’t agree with, he ignored it. How’s the Florida bullet train doing or the smaller class sizes?

Today, Americans look at Jeb as just another W. In my opinion, Jeb is smarter, just as stubborn and a much better communicator. If America sees Jeb in the Senate for 4-8 years, they may decide that Jeb would be a strong president and quite unlike his older brother.

With regards to Jeb’s interest in the Senate: Reports are that he is interested. He sent an email to Politico Tuesday night saying, “I am considering it.”

And if Jeb does announce his candidacy, it will quiet the blogs as well as the media. I would suspect that most of the prominent candidates from both parties would forego a run and anyone else would be crushed.

But in case he doesn’t run, we should have 2 years of interesting discussions ahead. The rest of the Republican field could consist of:

Marco Rubio – Former Florida Speaker of the House, he is a strong conservative and has been at odds with Republican Governor Charlie Crist because Crist is too moderate. It was rumored that he may consider a run at governor against Crist in 2010 but the senate does seem like an option if Bush opts not to run.

Charlie Crist – First-term Florida governor. He was a short-list candidate to be John McCain’s running mate. He is highly popular in the state – even with Democrats – and should coast in his re-election bid, but his name has come up for the Senate. Obviously, his office has indicated that he will run for re-election in 2010. Crist, for the most part has attempted to cross party lines. I don’t agree with everything he does but he has scored points with me for a number of items, most recently extending early voting hours in the state which permitted more Floridians to cast a vote.

Bill McCollum – The current Attorney General who twice lost in governor’s races. He is up for re-election in 2010 and has indicated his intention to go that route. I would consider him a top tier candidate but well below Bush and Crist.

Toni Jennings is the former Lt. Governor under Jeb and decided against a run for governor.  I will be curious to see if her name surfaces as a candidate.

Jeff Kottkamp is the current Lt. Governor. A sure mid-tier candidate, he will definitely wait to see if Jeb or Crist opt for the seat. If neither do, I suspect that Kottkamp may go for it. If Crist decides to aim for the Senate, Kottkamp may run instead for governor. Otherwise, expect Kottkamp to run with Crist again in 2010.

Connie Mack IV – He currently is the US Rep from Florida’s 14th district which includes Naples and Ft. Myers. His father was a U.S. Senator from 1989 – 2001. This seat is now currently held by Bill Nelson. Thanks to his father, Mack has strong name recognition in the state. I suspect that only die-hard sports fans will have heard of his great-grandfather.

Joe Scarborough – Host of MSNBC’s Morning Joe, Scarborough served in the US House from 1995 – 2001. He was approached to run against Bill Nelson in 2006 which he refused – the Republican nominee was former Sec. of State Katherine Harris.

John Mica – I said ‘who’ when I first saw his name. He is a US Rep out of the Winter Park area. His spokesman stated that a decision on whether or not to run will not come until after the first of the year.

Rush Limbaugh – he lives in Palm Beach. He makes a ton of money and loves to criticize the left. I’d love to see him put his money where his mouth is and give the Senate a try. Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Al Franken and Rush Limbaugh were both in the Senate?

Regardless of who the Democrats put out there, it will be tough for them to win. Only Florida CFO Alex Sink has any real statewide name recognition. The Democrats do have 2 years to build a viable candidate – Obama was able to do it on a national scale in that time. The problem is, the Florida Democrats are not a particularly well-run group. How else do you explain their inability to capitalize on a Democratic year? The national party would have to come down here and get involved.

I will discuss the Democratic candidates and any changes with the Republicans in my next post on the race.

Senator Mel Martinez opts not to run for re-election in Florida

Huge news out of Florida.  Senator Mel Martinez WILL NOT run for re-election in 2010. 

The Hill is reporting that Martinez “announced Tuesday that he will not seek reelection in 2010, passing on what looked to be one of the most difficult reelection battles in the country.”

Republican Senator Martinez calls out lie by Cheney

Mel Martinez

The Republican Junior Senator from Florida really hadn’t been heard from during his 4 years in office.  The Cuban-born Martinez did weigh in on the illegal immigration issue as well as against the party’s ‘drill baby drill’ position until John McCain and Florida Governor Charlie Crist became supporters of off-shore drilling.

He had short runs as Housing and Urban Development secretary and as co-chair of the Republican National Committee when the party lost seats during the 2006 election.

During the 2004 Republican primary for the Senate, The St. Petersburg Times had endorsed Martinez against his opponent, Bill McCollum.  The Times retracted the endorsement after Martinez called McCollum “the new darling of the homosexual extremists.” 

Martinez’s had indicated his intention to run for re-election but was planning on making the announcement after the first of the year. 

His decision to forego the reelection bid makes the already difficult attempt at a Republican hold even more difficult.

There have already been a large number of Democrats whose names have been tossed about – Representatives Allen Boyd, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Ron Klein, Robert Wexler and Kathy Castor and Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink.

Wexler was an early Barack Obama supporter and was one of Congresses loudest voices pushing for the impeachments of Bush and Cheney.

Wasserman Schultz is best known in Congress as the person who threw the rubber stamps and declared that the former Republican Congress would not be a ‘rubber stamp Congress.’  She is also Chris Matthews’s favorite Congressional guest.  You have to watch him interview her.

Sink is a first term CFO and is married to former Florida Governor candidate, Bill McBride.

I would like to see either Wasserman Schultz or Wexler get the nod though I am a big fan of a person not on the initial list.  My personal choice is Daryl Jones.  He is a retired colonel in the Air Force and a former member of the Florida House of Representatives.  In 2002, he became the first African American to run for Florida governor in 2002 and the second chosen to run for lieutenant governor in 2006 (the only other African American was Republican David Montgomery in 1876.  Yes 1876)

The question is who will replace Martinez as the Republican candidate for the seat? 

Former Governor Jeb Bush comes to mind.  He needs somewhere to build up the Bush name again.  Bush, however, had already declined to run against Bill Nelson in 2006.

Will Katherine Harris have the stones to give it another try?  I seriously doubt it.          

MSNBC host of Morning Joe and former Congressman, Joe Scarborough was also approached about running in 2006.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he would give it a go this time.

My prediction is that U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV will go for that seat.  His father held the Senate seat now held by Bill Nelson.

Other names I can think of:  Current Florida Lt. Governor Jeff Kottkamp and current Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum (who twice failed in previous Senate runs, including the 2004 loss to Martinez).

I would love to see Rush Limbaugh throw his hat into the ring.  Rush lives in Palm Beach County.

In order to give the Republican the advantage in 2010, Martinez should resign the seat allowing Republican Governor Charlie Crist to appoint his replacement.

Sources:  Read Sen. Martinez won’t run for re-election in 2010 in The Hill


The spokesman for Debbie Wasserman Schultz announced today, “the congresswoman is very happy in the House of Representatives where she plans to continue to work on behalf of the people of Florida’s 20th Congressional District.”

The Sun-Sentinel provided some good analysis for Wasserman Schultz’s decision:

She’s chairwoman of a subcommittee on the Appropriations Committee. That position, known as one of the cardinals who make decisions on the federal budget, is extraordinarily powerful, and achieving it was a major feat for a junior member. And it puts her on the ladder that ultimately could see her ascend to the top levels of government in the House.

“Wasserman Schultz is also unabashedly liberal, something that puts her in sync with her South Florida district but might not sit so well with voters in a statewide election.” 

[Another update]

At 1:50 pm Bill McCollum has put out a statement.  If you recall from a few paragraphs up, McCollum was the one smeared by Martinez in 2004 and is currently Florida Attorney General.

“I have been asked today whether this announcement will have any effect on my plans for the future. At this point, my plan is – at the appropriate time – to announce my intention to seek re-election as Florida’s Attorney General. However, given today’s development, I will seriously consider and discuss with my family a race for this U.S. Senate seat, and we will share our decision at a later date.”