An Eye on the Tropics: Hanna and Ike – 06-SEP-2008 11:30 PM

Tropical Storm Hanna is moving rapidly up the east coast of the U.S.  The storm is located 135 miles southwest of Providence, Rhode Island.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 55 mph and the minimum centralized pressure is 992 mb.  Hanna is moving northeast at 30 mph.

Major Hurricane Ike is now a category 4 hurricane.  It is located near the Turks and Caicos with maximum sustained winds near 135 mph.  Ike’s minimum centralized pressure is 947 mb.  The storm is moving west-southwest at 15 mph. 

Computer models indicate that Ike could miss Florida altogether with only the Keys and southern most part of the state still within the cone of uncertainty.  The storm is now expected to cut across Cuba and then move into the Gulf of Mexico.  It is still too early to determine where Ike will eventually make landfall.

 

Saturday, September 06, 2008 – 11:00 PM advisory from AccuWeather

Tropical Storm Hanna was located near 40.5 north, 73.4 west, or about 135 miles southwest of Providence, R.I. Hanna’s maximum-sustained winds remain near 55 mph with the tropical storm-force winds mainly confined to the east of the center of circulation. Hanna’s central pressure is at 992 mb, or 29.29 inches, and the storm continues to pick up speed to the northeast at 30 mph. Given such a rapid forward motion, winds associated with Hanna are not expected to decrease too rapidly and tropical-storm conditions are forecast for the entire Northeast coast.

Tropical storm warnings have been discontinued from Sandy Hook, N.J., southward, but continue northeastward to Merrimack River, Mass.; including New York Harbor, Long Island Sound, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

Hanna made landfall Saturday morning at 3:20 a.m. near the North Carolina/South Carolina border as a strong tropical storm, but there is little difference in the effects from a strong tropical storm and a low-end Category 1 hurricane. Swells from Hanna will cause rough surf and rip currents along the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast tonight into Sunday.

Our current thinking is that Hanna will continue to accelerate tonight as she tracks into and through southeastern New England. Areas within 100 miles of either side of the storm’s path will experience 2-4 inches of rain with some isolated 5-to 6-inch totals. The highest rainfall totals will be along and to the west of Hanna’s track. Tropical storm-force winds of 40-60 mph will impact parts of eastern Long Island through southeastern New England. The strongest wind gusts, over 60 mph, will occur right along the coast. Isolated tornadoes are also possible to the north and east of the storm center.

 

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 1

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 1

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 2

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 2

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 3

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 3

Computer model verification - click to animate

Computer model verification - click to animate

Hurricane Ike was near 21.2 north and 70.9 west, very close to the Turks and Caicos. Maximum-sustained winds remain near 135 mph with higher gusts, making Ike a powerful Category 4 hurricane. The estimated central pressure remains 947 mb, or 27.96 inches. The hurricane is moving west-southwest at 15 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos islands and both the central and southeastern Bahamas, as well as portions of eastern Cuba. This includes the provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago De Cuba, Granma, and Camaguey.

A hurricane watch is in effect for the provinces of Camaguey, Ciego De Avila and Sancti Spiritus in eastern Cuba.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from Cabo Frances Viejo, Dominican Republic, westward to Gonaives, Haiti.

Ike strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane status Saturday afternoon as it moved west-southwest. Some further strengthening is possible over the next day or so as Ike encounters less wind shear and some warmer water. This may allow Ike to become a strong Category 4 or even a Category 5 hurricane before affecting Cuba later Sunday or Sunday night. The initial thought was that Ike would move over water stirred up from Hanna, but now it appears that it will move south of those waters. A west-southwest track is forecast over the next few days with a gradual turn to the west. Ike will track through the central Bahamas during the day Sunday. The track of Ike has become a little more clear, at least, with a general consensus taking Ike through the Bahamas and into the Gulf of Mexico. There is still some chance that Ike could impact the Florida Peninsula on Monday night, but as of now Ike looks to pass close to or over the Florida Keys. Given this track, Ike will also pass very close to the north coast of Cuba. Because of this, all interests in the Bahamas, Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast states should keep up with the latest information on Ike.

 

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 1

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 1

 

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 2

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 2

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 2

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 3

Hurricane Ike computer model verification - click to animate

Hurricane Ike computer model verification - click to animate

Advertisements

Comments are closed.