An Eye on the Tropics: Hanna, Ike and Josephine – 04-SEP-2008 10:00 PM

Tropical Storm Hanna has made her break toward the US. Landfall is expected somewhere between South Carolina and north to Virginia but surrounding areas must keep an eye on this storm.

Major Hurricane Ike is still a category 4 storm and is heading directly for the US. Models seem to vary on what will happen as it approaches the US. Ike expects to remain a major hurricane and could make US landfall early next week.

Tropical Storm Josephine is poorly organized at this time and no real strengthening is expected.

Thursday, September 04, 2008 – 8:00 PM advisory from AccuWeather

As of 8:00 PM EDT Thursday, Hanna was still a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph. Hanna is located near 26.0 north 76.0 west, or about 75 miles east-southeast of Marsh Harbor in the Bahamas, or abouth 550 miles south-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina. Hanna is moving to the northwest around 14 mph. The estimated central pressure of Hanna is 987 mb, or 29.15 inches. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 315 miles, mainly to the north and east of the storm’s center.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from the Savannah River northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including The Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwest Bahamas.

A hurricane watch is in effect from north of Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Currituck Beach Light, including Pamlico Sound.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect from the North Carolina/Virginia border northward to Great Egg Inlet in New Jersey, including the Chesapeake Bay, The Tidal Potomac, Washington D.C., and the Delaware Bay.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from the Savannah River southward to Altamaha Sounds Georgia.

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Hanna remains somewhat disorganized with an asymmetric look as the greatest amount of convection continues north and west of the center. Dry air continues to limit the rain south and east of the center. The environment around Hanna may not change very much the remainder of tonight at least, but Hanna could become a low category 1 hurricane Friday before making landfall. In reality, there is little difference in the effects from a strong tropical storm and a low end category 1 hurricane. Tropical storm-force winds will affect the Bahamas, mainly the central and northern Bahamas, over the next 24 hours. Rainfall from Hanna will also affect the central and northern Bahamas through Thursday night. Rainfall in these areas will average 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts possible through Thursday night. Storm surge caused by the winds around the storm will average 1-3 feet above normal water levels. Large, dangerous waves will batter areas where the winds are blowing onshore. Swells from Hanna will cause rough surf and rip currents along the Southeast coast through Friday.

Hanna will move northwest and stay east of Florida during Thursday night and Friday and eventually turn more northerly later Friday and Friday night. Hanna could still have a few stronger wind gusts just below tropical storm force near the coast of Florida along with some outer rain bands reaching the eastern coast.

The most likely area of landfall will occur along the Carolina coast between Charleston South Carolina and the Outer Banks of North Carolina later Friday night or early Saturday morning. There is some chance that Hanna could recurve more sharply and could just graze the Outer Banks of North Carolina. But our current thinking is that Hanna will move inland and move over eastern North Carolina early Saturday morning with an increase in forward speed. Hanna’s path will parallel the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts roughly just east of the I-95 corridor. experience 2-4 inches of rain with some isolated 5-6 inch totals. Tropical storm force winds of 40-60 mph will occur along and mostly east of the I-95 corridor from east central North Carolina northward into eastern New England. The strongest wind gusts of over 60 mph will occur right along the coast. Hanna will bring very rough and dangerous surf from the east coast of Florida tonight and tomorrow northward to the southeast and mid Atlantic coast later tomorrow through Saturday then affect the New England coast of the United States Saturday night and Sunday.

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 1

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 1

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 2

Tropical Storm Hanna Spaghetti Model 2

As of 5:00 PM Ike was near 23.6 north and 58.2 west, or about 505 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are 135 mph with higher gusts. The estimated central pressure is 945 mb, or 27.91 inches. The hurricane is moving west-northwest at 14 mph. Ike is expected to remain a major hurricane over the next couple of days, though it may fluctuate due to influence from shear Friday into Friday night. A west, then west-southwest track should occur over the next few days. Computer forecast information keeps Ike north of the Leeward Islands tonight and Friday, then north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday. Ike will affect the Turks and Caicos Islands by Sunday and will start to affect the southeast Bahamas during Sunday and Sunday night. Ike could directly impact the southeast U.S. by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 1

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 1

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 2

Tropical Storm Josephine continues to look poorly organized. As of 11 a.m. EDT Thursday Josephine was centered around 14.6 north, 33.2 west. Josephine has weakened slightly Thursday afternoon with estimate maximum sustained winds at 45 mph. Josephine will remain a weak tropical storm for the next couple of days as shear from a strong upper level system to the north remains close to the tropical storm.

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