An Eye on the Tropics: T.S. / Hurricane Gustav – 29-AUG-2008 7:00 AM

Gustav will be trouble next week.

As the storm exits Jamaica tomorrow and enters the waters of the Caribbean, Gustav will strengthen into a category 1 hurricane. By Sunday, Gustav is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico as a category 3 and at some point could strengthen into a category 4 hurricane.

Though the future path is uncertain with the unpredictability of tropical cyclones, most computer models agree that Gustav will come ashore the middle of next week somewhere around Louisiana. This could be disastrous for an area that still hasn’t recovered from Hurricane Katrina 3 years ago.

August 29, 2008 7:00 AM (5:00 AM Advisory) – from AccuWeather

Gustav will move across the remainder of Jamaica early this morning, intensify into a hurricane during the day Friday then affect the Cayman Islands Friday night.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

A tropical storm warning remains out for the province of Granma, Cuba.

A hurricane watch is in effect for Western Cuba, for the provinces of Isla De Uventud, Pinar Del Rio, La Habana, and Ciudad De La Habana.

A Tropical Storm watch is also in effect for the province of Matanzas.

Tropical Storm Gustav was located about 85 miles west of Kingston, Jamaica, or near 18.1 north, 78.1 west. Gustav is moving to the west at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 65 mph. The estimated central pressure is 991 mb, or 29.26 inches. Gustav brought excessive rainfall to much of Jamaica with the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches fell with local amounts of 20-plus inches, especially over the higher terrain.

Gustav had been interacting with the island of Jamaica since midday Thursday. The storm has failed to become a hurricane due to the 7,000-foot mountains over eastern Jamaica. Gustav will emerge over or water in the next few hours and with the storm looks well organized at this time and should ramp up to hurricane strength mid- to late morning. Jamaica will slowly improve during the day. Given the very warm water in its path Gustav could intensify rapidly to a Category 2 and perhaps 3 hurricane Friday night and Saturday. During this time Gustav will pass near the Cayman Islands Friday night then over or just west of far western Cuba, causing windswept flooding rain over those two relatively flat land masses. Gustav will move into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday as a Category 3 hurricane and could become a Category 4 hurricane later Sunday and Sunday night. Where Gustav moves beyond Sunday is still uncertain. A large high pressure area to the north guiding Gustav over the next few days will change shape and weaken on its west side allowing Gustav to track more northwestward during Sunday night and Monday. However, another very strong high pressure area building into the eastern United States will expand southward and this could slow or even block the northward motion of Gustav during later Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. All interests along the Gulf Coast, especially from the upper coast of Texas to the western Florida Panhandle should continue to closely monitor the progress of Gustav.

Gustav Spaghetti Model 1

Gustav Spaghetti Model 1

Gustav Spaghetti Model 2

Gustav Spaghetti Model 2

Gustav Spaghetti Model 3

Gustav Spaghetti Model 3

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5 responses to “An Eye on the Tropics: T.S. / Hurricane Gustav – 29-AUG-2008 7:00 AM

  1. consider your page bookmaked, sir. How dare you provide so much information?!?

    🙂 Nice page, man. I live in Houston and we’re watching this one closely. Lots of models show it comig our way, though Louisiana certainly “leads” in that undistinguished category. Good luck to you and yours.


  2. W. J. Taylor

    You guys have great weather information but lousy choice in terms of the adds on your web site for polictical candidates. Anybody with half a brain could see that Biden and Obama are just phony hack politicians. Full of themselves and lying to everyone with no idea of what is right or wrong and no intelligence to admit that. Obama is so tight with the mafia and special interests in Chicago and other organized crime, he squeeks when they say his name. Biden is just a talking head for the Democartic machine. Obama is incapable of writing his own speaches, how is he supposed to run the country. How about allowing adds for covering a real candidate for President and his running mate. People who will actually have a backbone to change Washington. John McCain is a hero who served his country and stands up for what ir right. Susan Palin also has the right values and guts to run the country for the people by the people, you know, the way it was set up to begin with. Jone McCain talks from the heart with intelligence and honest integrity as does Susan Palin. I am sick of the phony, dishonest politicians like Obama and Biden, and of the push by the media to promote these idiots. What is the deal? Give us real Americans a break.

  3. W. J. Taylor

    Your weather info is excellent. About your political adds, too in your face and the wrong candidates get too much coverage, for me. I doubt you will allow my last comments on that. So, I do want to commend you on the great source of weather models. I live on Mobil Bay, Alabama and we could have no better coverage than what you provide for tracking these scary storms. My wife and I have been through most of the worst ones: Camille, Frederic, Ivan and Katrina and stayed right here through them. The other storms of memory (Danny, Opal, Erin, Dennis) and recently Fay turned out to be wimpy but we are glad that you have the link to the models. I am telling everyone I know to check out your site. (Although I am also telling them to vote for McCain and Palin) Thanks.

  4. Thank you, Hunter. This one does look scary for you. I’m in Florida and Gustav isn’t coming here but I am looking at Hanna which doesn’t really know what she’s doing yet.

    Thanks and good luck to you, as well.

  5. Thank you for your nice words on the weather coverage, W.J.

    I do not block comments on this site just because they have opposing points of view. Debate is important. I prefer to have the debate on the political posts rather than on the weather posts but let me just state that when you want to debate please bring facts with the accusations and personal insults.

    I will be praying for you all wherever Gustav makes landfall and I hope that the storm fizzles out before arriving. I live in Florida and have been through too many storms, as well.

    And I appreciate you passing along my link. Be safe.