Will McCain Base His VP Choice on Obama’s Selection?

Joe Biden? Evan Bayh? Tim Kaine? Kathleen Sebelius? Bill Richardson? Hillary Clinton? Or someone else?

These are some of the names being floated around by the experts, the not-so-experts and the armchair politicians. It has been widely reported that Barack Obama has already made his selection while vacationing in Hawaii.

I’m guessing the text message is ready to go and they’re just waiting for the word. Tuesday, I received a text from the campaign asking me to volunteer. I suspect that this was the test message to see if there were any hiccups with their system. I received it in Florida 2 hours after my friend in California received it. (Yes, I’ll be pissed if he gets his text message announcement two hours before I do.)

I have to figure that the John McCain campaign is waiting right along with us. Some in his campaign probably even signed up joining the 2 million Obama supporters wanting to be the first (or first 2 million) to know.

Has McCain already made his selection but is keeping it close to the vest? I imagine that McCain and his advisors are playing this like a sporting event. They have a few candidates left in the pool but the final selection will be based on who can best counter Obama’s selection.

For example: If Biden is the selection, which voting bloc does he attract? For the most part, it is senior voters.

According to FiveThirtyEight.com: Seniors are about 50 percent more likely than other voters to be uncommitted at this point in the race. Voters aged 65+ will eventually represent about 20 percent of the electorate, but they may represent more like 30 percent of the pool of persuadables.

This means Biden could help push Obama ahead in a key state like Florida. So does McCain counter this decision with Florida Governor Charlie Crist or Joe Lieberman?

If Evan Bayh (Indiana) is Obama’s man, does McCain counter with Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty? What if Obama selects Tim Kaine (VA), does Tom Ridge (PA) get the call from McCain?

Logic would dictate that McCain would have to base his selection this way in order to take the battleground states.

But another thought comes to mind: Instead of playing defensively (as the above plan would suggest), does McCain take a more offensive approach? If Obama selected Biden in order to gain the edge in Florida, does McCain go after Pawlenty to help in the Midwest or Ridge in order to try to steal Pennsylvania and maybe Virginia?

Then again, a third approach may ultimately rule the day. John McCain will pick who he wants regardless of who Obama selects.



One response to “Will McCain Base His VP Choice on Obama’s Selection?

  1. Buck$ … just wanted you to know that I think you kick ass.