Tag Archives: spaghetti models

Eye on the Tropics –Danielle, Earl and more – Aug 26, 2010

Posted on August 26, 2010 | Leave a comment
We’ve been waiting for this – The 2010 Tropical season is heating up.  As the transition from the El Niño to La Niña winds down we expected the Atlantic hurricane season to pick up.  This was what all of the hurricane experts were predicting.

Currently there is 1 hurricane (Danielle), 1 Tropical Storm (Earl) and 2 others that are being closely watched.

Hurricane Danielle

As of:  11amLocation:  24.4° N, 55.9° W or approximately 770 miles Southeast of BermudaMaximum sustained winds: 105 mph or Category 2.  Gusting up to 120 mphMovement: NW 15 mphPressure:  28.64 inches or 970 mb

Hurricane Danielle is expected to turn more to the north by the weekend bringing the storm very close to Bermuda on Sunday.  Though the eye is expected to remain east of Bermuda, the island will be heavily impacted by this strong hurricane.  Danielle is expected to reach Category 3 intensity before the weekend. 

Hurricane Danielle forecast model
Hurricane Danielle Spaghetti model

Tropical Storm Earl

As of:  11amLocation:  14.9° N, 37.1° W or approximately or approximately 1735 miles east of the Northern Leeward IslandsMaximum sustained winds: 45 mph.  Gusting up to 55 mphMovement: W 17 mphPressure:  29.65 inches or 1004 mb

As with Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl is not forecast to be a threat to the U.S.  The same weakness that Hurricane Danielle found that has her turning toward Bermuda is expected to remain long enough for Earl to follow the similar path. 

Tropical Storm Earl forecast model
Tropical Storm Earl Spaghetti model

Also watching

There is a strong looking system just west of the coast of Africa that is expected to strengthen to storm status and a system brewing in the Gulf of Mexico.  One of these is expected to become Tropical Storm Fiona over the next few days.

New storm coming off coast of Africa – Tropical Storm Earl to the left
A mess in the Gulf of Mexico – Low pressure system could become tropical storm

Also, there are a series of storms currently crossing Africa that can be seen in the last picture from NOAA. (H/T to Joe Bastardi)

‘Parade’ of storms across Africa & Atlantic Ocean

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An Eye on Tropical Storm Danny

Posted on August 27, 2009 | Leave a comment

Tropical Storm Danny is still poorly organized though it is expected to strengthen into a hurricane.

As of 5am EDT on Thursday, Danny is located near 27.4 north, 72.1 west or about 575 miles south-southeast of Hatteras, North Carolina.  Maximum sustained wins are near 60 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.  It is moving northwest at 10 mph. Tropical Storm Danny’s central pressure is 1006 millibars or 29.71 inches.

Satellite images indicate that most of the storms deep convection is on the eastern side of the storm.  The center of Danny has re-formed a little farther to the north.

As Danny moves father away from the weak upper-level low that had been creating shear, thus preventing Danny from becoming better organized, the storm should now gradually strengthen over the next 24-48 hours.

[More on Tropical Storm Danny - maps & computer models]

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TS Claudette makes landfall; Bill becomes hurricane [August 17]

Posted on August 17, 2009 | 1 Comment

Eye on the Tropics – Monday, August 17, 2009

tropics monday 1

Tropical Storm Claudette

Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall early Monday morning near Fort Walton Beach, Florida.  It was located near 30.9 north and 87.0 west or about 40 miles northwest of Fort Walton Beach.

Claudette has sustained winds of 40 mph and is heading northwest at 12 mph.  Estimated central pressure is 1006 millibars or 29.71 inches.

[More on Ana, Bill and Claudette]

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Hurricane Season Gets Started – Ana, Bill and TD4

Posted on August 16, 2009 | 4 Comments

The 2009 Hurricane season was very quiet until late in the week as 3 systems formed – 2 in the Atlantic and 1 in the Gulf of Mexico.  The first storm of the hurricane season typically forms around the middle of August so there really are no surprises this year.   Remember, in 1992, Hurricane Andrew formed on August 16th. 

All Storms 3

[More on Ana, Bill and TD4]

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An Eye on the Tropics: Hurricane Ike – 12-SEP-2008 8:00 AM

Posted on September 12, 2008 | Leave a comment

Hurricane Ike is bearing down on the Texas coast as a large category 2 storm.  Ike could still increase to category 3 strength today.

[Hurricane Ike Details and Maps]

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An Eye on the Tropics: Hurricane Ike – 11-SEP-2008 8:00 AM

Posted on September 11, 2008 | 1 Comment

Keeping an eye on Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike is in the Gulf of Mexico heading toward Texas. The storm is expected to make landfall early Saturday as a very strong hurricane, possibly as strong as a Category 4.

[Hurricane Ike Details and Maps]

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An Eye on the Tropics: Hurricane Ike – 10-SEP-2008 9:00 AM

Posted on September 10, 2008 | Leave a comment

Hurricane Ike has moved into the Gulf of Mexico and has begun strengthening. Computer models indicate that the likely landfall target will be Texas.

Hurricane Ike by the numbers:

Location:

Near 23.9 north, 85.3 west.

About 125 miles north of the western tip of Cuba, or 434 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Movement:

Northwest at 8 mph

Maximum sustained winds:

85 mph

Minimum Centralized Pressure:

959 mb, or 28.32 inches

[Hurricane Ike Details and Maps]

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An Eye on the Tropics: Ike – 09-SEP-2008 8:00 AM

Posted on September 9, 2008 | Leave a comment

Hurricane Ike has weakened to a Category 1 storm after crossing Cuba.  Ike will be emerging into the Gulf of Mexico once it crosses western Cuba.  Though the track is still uncertain, most models indicate that landfall will occur in Texas.  Click on the Computer Model Verification map below and see the progression of the spaghetti model for Ike.

As of 8 AM, Hurricane Ike was located near 22.4 north and 82.4 west, or 40 miles south of Havana, Cuba. Ike is traveling west-northwest at 13 mph with winds of 80 mph. Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a central pressure of 965 mb, or 28.50 inches.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Matanzas, La Habana, Ciudad Habana, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay.

[Hurricane Ike Details and Maps]

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An Eye on the Tropics: Hanna and Ike – 06-SEP-2008 11:30 PM

Posted on September 6, 2008 | Leave a comment

Tropical Storm Hanna is moving rapidly up the east coast of the U.S.  The storm is located 135 miles southwest of Providence, Rhode Island.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 55 mph and the minimum centralized pressure is 992 mb.  Hanna is moving northeast at 30 mph.

Major Hurricane Ike is now a category 4 hurricane.  It is located near the Turks and Caicos with maximum sustained winds near 135 mph.  Ike’s minimum centralized pressure is 947 mb.  The storm is moving west-southwest at 15 mph. 

Computer models indicate that Ike could miss Florida altogether with only the Keys and southern most part of the state still within the cone of uncertainty.  The storm is now expected to cut across Cuba and then move into the Gulf of Mexico.  It is still too early to determine where Ike will eventually make landfall.

 

[Storm Details and Maps]

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An Eye on the Tropics: Hanna, Ike and Josephine – 06-SEP-2008 12:30 AM

Posted on September 6, 2008 | Leave a comment

Tropical Storm Hanna is almost hurricane strength. Location: near latitude 32.4 North and Longitude 79.1 West or about 60 miles east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina and about 140 miles south-southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina. Maximum Sustained Winds are 70 mph. Minimum Centralized Pressure is 978 mb. Hanna is moving to the north around 20 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 260 miles, mainly to the north and east of the storm’s center.

Hurricane Ike is currently a category 3 storm. Ike was near 22.6 north and 65.6 west, or about 360 miles east -northeast of Grand Turk Island. Maximum sustained winds are 115 mph with higher gusts. The estimated central pressure is 958 mb, or 28.29 inches. The hurricane is moving west-southwest at 16 mph. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles.

Josephine has been downgraded to a tropical depression. Josephine was centered around 16.3 north, 35.8 west. This is 785 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 35 mph with a central pressure of 1006 mb, or 29.71 inches. Josephine will remain in a hostile environment for the next couple of days due to shear and also cooler waters in its path. Currently moving to the west-northwest at 7 mph, this motion should continue with some increase in forward speed.

[Storm Details and Maps]

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An Eye on the Tropics: Hanna, Ike and Josephine – 04-SEP-2008 10:00 PM

Posted on September 4, 2008 | Leave a comment

Tropical Storm Hanna has made her break toward the US. Landfall is expected somewhere between South Carolina and north to Virginia but surrounding areas must keep an eye on this storm.

Major Hurricane Ike is still a category 4 storm and is heading directly for the US. Models seem to vary on what will happen as it approaches the US. Ike expects to remain a major hurricane and could make US landfall early next week.

Tropical Storm Josephine is poorly organized at this time and no real strengthening is expected.

[Storm Details and Maps]

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An Eye on the Tropics: Hanna, Ike and Josephine – 03-SEP-2008 10:00 PM

Posted on September 3, 2008 | 1 Comment

Three named storms are churning in the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Hanna has been hanging around the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Hanna is finally giving an indication which way she will track. It does appear that the storm will stay east of South Florida and possibly make landfall in northern Florida, Georgia or South Carolina.

Hurricane Ike strengthened to a category 3. It’s way too early to determine what impact this storm will have on the US, if any.

Tropical Storm Josephine is an interesting one. AccuWeather predicts that the storm will increase to hurricane strength while other models don’t see much of a future for Josephine, predicting that the storm will weaken to a tropical depression.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist has declared a state of emergency because of Hanna.

Continue reading →

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An Eye on the Tropics: Hanna, Ike and TD10 – 02-SEP-2008 10:00 AM

Posted on September 2, 2008 | 2 Comments

The peak time of Hurricane season 2008 has begun. We have 3 named storms and a fourth on the way. All storms are included in this post.

Hurricane Hanna (currently downgraded to a tropical storm) will be making her move within the next day or two and could impact parts of the southeastern U.S. Tropical Storm Ike is churning out in the Atlantic and all models indicate that the storm will be heading toward the Caribbean and U.S, though obviously the final destination is quite uncertain at this time. Tropical Depression 10 is expected to become Josephine later today. And Tropical Depression Gustav made landfall yesterday as a category 2 storm.

[Details and Maps]

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An Eye on the Tropics: Hurricane Hanna – 1-SEP-2008 8:00 AM

Posted on September 1, 2008 | Leave a comment

A nearly stationary Tropical Storm Hanna continues to churn just north of the Bahamas. Computer models finally are determining the future track of the storm. Though Florida is within the cone of uncertainty, Georgia and South Carolina seems to be the most likely point of landfall.

Since this storm has had the models confused for days, we’ll just have to keep an eye on this storm to see if there are any changes the middle of the week.

[Update:  Tropical Storm Hanna has strengthened into Hurricane Hanna with winds at 75 mpg at the 2:00 pm advisory.]

[Tropical Storm Hanna Details and Maps]

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An Eye on the Tropics: Tropical Storm Hanna – 31-AUG-2008 10:30 AM

Posted on August 31, 2008 | 5 Comments

Computer Models have changed drastically in the last 24 hours. Experts are not certain if the high pressure ridge that is over the Eastern United States will weaken allowing Hanna to turn north over the next few days.

[Tropical Storm Hanna Details and Maps]

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